Recent developments in the ethylene glycol market indicate a shift in both supply and demand, according to industry analysts.
On the supply side, Hongyuan Futures reports that the recent restart of several short-stop production units has led to a notable rise in ethylene glycol output, with additional units slated for future reactivation. This increase is anticipated to place additional pressure on spot supply in the short term.
In terms of demand, Zhonghui Futures has highlighted that the downstream polyester sector is approaching its peak consumption period, often referred to as “golden September and silver October.” However, the potential for increased production load appears constrained. The weighted profit for polyester products has rebounded to 232.4 yuan per ton, up by 81.6 yuan, while daily capacity utilization remains stable at 87.0%. Weekly capacity utilization saw a slight increase to 86.92%. Additionally, polyester filament production and sales have improved, and the weighted inventory of polyester products has significantly decreased to 15.8 days.
Inventory levels are also shifting. Donghai Futures noted a continued decline in short-term ethylene glycol inventories, with port stock dropping to 550,000 tons. Recent shipping levels from major ports remain high, at approximately 15,000 tons, while arrivals are steady at around 130,000 tons, suggesting a trend toward further inventory reduction.
Looking ahead, Shenyin Wanguo Futures warns that while imports are expected to rise, improvements in downstream autumn and winter orders may be limited. Consequently, pressure on industry inventory is projected to persist, suggesting that any increase in ethylene glycol prices may be restrained.
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