China’s corn imports have slowed to their weakest pace in seven seasons, raising concerns that even reduced purchase forecasts for the year may be difficult to meet. According to customs data released on Tuesday, China imported just 180,000 tons of corn in the first two months of 2024, bringing the total for the 2024-25 marketing year to 1.07 million tons. This marks the lowest import volume for this period since the 2017-18 season when 1.03 million tons were recorded during the same five-month timeframe.
The Chinese government’s farm ministry has revised its annual import forecast significantly, now projecting just 9 million tons for the year—less than half of last season’s total and substantially lower than the earlier estimate of 13 million tons. For context, during the 2017-18 season, China purchased only 3.5 million tons of corn.
The decline in imports reflects broader economic challenges, with weak agricultural consumption being one of the casualties of a sluggish economy. In response to these conditions, the government instructed traders last year to limit purchases of overseas grains, including corn, in an effort to support domestic prices and protect farm profits.
Compounding these issues is the 15% tariff recently imposed on U.S. corn, which is part of China’s broader retaliation against U.S. trade policies, including the tariffs levied on Chinese exports. Additionally, reduced demand from the struggling livestock sector led to a drop in corn futures prices, which fell to their lowest levels in over three years in January. This prompted state intervention as the government sought to stabilize the market.
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