More than 30 shipments of US soybeans are currently en route to China, with almost half of them expected to arrive after Beijing’s retaliatory tariffs on American farm goods take effect next month, according to shipping data.
While the final destination of these cargoes could change, the majority were booked by China’s state stockpiler, Sinograin, and are likely to be exempt from the new tariffs, sources familiar with the matter said. These sources requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the situation. A request for comment sent to Sinograin was not immediately answered.
On March 10, China imposed a 10% tariff on US soybeans, along with duties on other agricultural products, as part of its response to US tariffs on Chinese exports. Cargoes that shipped before the tariff’s implementation and arrive in China by April 12 will not be affected.
Data from Kpler, an analytics firm, reveals that the shipments currently on their way to China account for about 2 million tons of soybeans. According to the US Department of Agriculture, as of March 6, approximately 1.36 million tons of US soybeans were still awaiting shipment to China.
The market is now closely watching for any signs—such as cancellations—that might indicate US soybean exports to China have become too costly due to the new tariff.
China imported 105 million tons of soybeans in 2024, primarily to feed its livestock. The US supplied about 20% of those imports, a share that has decreased in recent years as China increasingly turned to other suppliers, including Brazil, in the wake of the trade war under the Trump administration.
Ishan Bhanu, lead agricultural commodities analyst at Kpler, pointed out, “The US is more dependent on Chinese demand than China is on American supply.”
This period also marks the tail end of the US soybean export season. If the tariffs remain in place until the next US export season begins in the fourth quarter of the year, their impact could be more pronounced.
“We are not expecting the trade war to last as long as the previous one, but for now, both sides are holding firm,” said Richard Buttenshaw, grains analyst at Marex Group.
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