Poland’s central bank is expected to hold its benchmark interest rate steady at 5.75% for the second consecutive month, with economic growth prospects and persistent inflation influencing the decision. The Monetary Policy Council is scheduled to make the announcement on Wednesday, in line with the predictions of all 33 economists surveyed. Along with the rate decision, the central bank will release its updated staff forecasts through 2027, offering further insights into the future trajectory of inflation and interest rates.
Last year, many policymakers, including Governor Adam Glapinski, had anticipated the March meeting as a potential starting point for rate cuts. However, a shift in policy stance has emerged in recent months. According to analysts from Pekao, led by Ernest Pytlarczyk, “Today this is no longer the case,” referencing Glapinski’s abrupt decision in December to delay any potential rate cuts until after 2025.
This change in direction has prompted backlash from political figures ahead of Poland’s presidential election in May. Rafal Trzaskowski, the leading opposition candidate, accused Glapinski of serving the interests of the ruling government, which appointed him. Meanwhile, Parliament Speaker Szymon Holownia called on the governor to reduce rates, criticizing the country’s high loan costs, referring to Poland as the “European champion of expensive loans.”
Despite the political pressure, Glapinski has defended his actions, insisting that the central bank is acting independently. He has also warned that inflation risks could resurface later this year due to the government’s plans to lift caps on energy prices.
As the governor prepares to address the media on Thursday regarding the rate decision, expectations are that his stance will remain unchanged. Recent data showing a recovery in investment at the close of last year has fueled optimism that Poland’s economic growth may shift away from an over-reliance on consumption.
Bank Millennium analysts, led by Grzegorz Maliszewski, noted that the Monetary Policy Council is likely to wait for further clarity, including the outcome of the presidential election and government decisions on household electricity pricing, before making any further moves on interest rates.
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