China is poised to increase its imports of off-exchange refined copper this year, driven by a boom in production from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and ongoing efforts to alleviate shortages while mitigating potential disruptions to U.S. scrap supplies, according to industry analysts and traders.
This anticipated rise in copper imports underscores China’s expanding reliance on refined copper from the DRC, the world’s second-largest copper producer following years of significant Chinese mining investments. China, the largest consumer of copper globally, is now increasingly sourcing copper from the African nation.
Copper from the DRC is typically “equivalent grade” (EQ), meaning it is not registered on exchanges like the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which makes it ineligible for certain contracts on these markets. However, EQ copper meets the same quality standards as registered metal, and its lower price has made it an attractive option for Chinese manufacturers. In 2023, EQ copper accounted for 62% of China’s refined copper imports, up from just under 50% in 2022, according to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM).
The global refined copper market remains tight, with demand outpacing supply for nine out of the twelve months in 2024. Citigroup forecasts a supply shortfall of 136,000 metric tons in 2025. As copper prices continue to climb—up 9% since the start of 2025 and 18% year-over-year—small- to medium-sized wire and rod manufacturers in China are particularly drawn to the cheaper, high-quality EQ copper.
“EQ copper has become highly popular in China in recent years. The key reason is that its quality matches that of registered copper, yet it is sold at a lower price,” said one copper trader.
In 2023, nearly 75% of the DRC’s 2 million tons of refined copper production was shipped to China, according to LSEG and Chinese customs data. The majority of these shipments were EQ copper, per SMM. Copper imports from the DRC to China in 2024 were seven times higher than in 2019, highlighting the increasing role the DRC plays in meeting China’s copper demand.
The price premium for EQ copper—defined by a metal content of at least 99.9935%—ranged from $3 to $15 per ton above the London Metal Exchange (LME) price as of March 4, according to Fastmarkets data. This compares to a premium of $50 to $80 per ton for registered copper with the same purity. This price differential reflects both the absence of registration fees for EQ copper and the additional premium that registered copper commands due to its exchange recognition.
Despite the price difference, traders have reported no issues with the quality of EQ copper. Some analysts and traders also note that China’s increasing dependence on Congolese copper could help mitigate potential losses in U.S. scrap imports, particularly given the ongoing tariff investigations under the Trump administration, which could lead to higher prices for U.S. copper.
In 2023, the U.S. supplied about one-fifth of China’s copper scrap imports, amounting to nearly 440,000 tons. However, concerns over the trade war have led to expectations of reduced imports, with some traders already halting purchases due to fears that tariffs could drive up costs.
“The supply of refined copper, including scrap, concentrate, anode, and blister, remains tight. We therefore expect higher imports of refined copper, including EQ copper, to partly offset this tightness in other raw materials,” said Jonathan Barnes, principal analyst at metals research firm Project Blue.
As China navigates the complexities of global copper supply, its increasing reliance on the DRC’s copper exports underscores a pivotal shift in the global copper trade, one that could reshape market dynamics in the years ahead.
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