India is grappling with unseasonably warm temperatures and a significant rainfall deficit this month, jeopardizing the nation’s wheat crop and raising concerns over potential government interventions, such as reducing or eliminating import duties on the grain. According to the India Meteorological Department, rainfall in the country’s northwest region, a critical wheat-growing area, has been nearly 80% below average since the start of the year.
The country also recorded its third-warmest January since 1901, further exacerbating the situation. “The forecast indicates continued warmer and drier conditions for at least the next month, which will further hamper wheat yields in the region,” stated Donald Keeney, senior meteorologist at Maxar Technologies Inc. “The wheat crop is certainly being affected.”
India is the world’s second-largest wheat producer, and a diminished harvest could hinder government efforts to control food prices. This, in turn, may lead to a reduction or removal of the 40% import duty to make wheat imports more viable for flour millers. While last year saw a record harvest, domestic stockpiles are at their lowest in 16 years, according to the US Department of Agriculture.
As of February 4, wheat plantings across the country reached 32.5 million hectares (80 million acres), a 2% increase from the previous year, as per farm ministry data. Wheat is typically sown between October and December, with harvesting beginning in March.
“If the warm conditions persist, yields could fall by more than 20%,” warned Anil Kalyan, a wheat farmer in Haryana. However, he added that normal temperatures in March could prevent severe losses.
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