Oil prices have maintained their recent gains, supported by the possibility of delayed supply increases from OPEC+ and ongoing uncertainty surrounding Russian energy flows. Brent crude remained steady near $76 a barrel after a 1.5% rise during the first two sessions of the week, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $72.
OPEC+ is contemplating postponing a series of planned monthly production increases, set to begin in April. This potential delay would mark the fourth time the group has pushed back on restoring output, adding to market uncertainty.
At the same time, high-level talks between U.S. and Russian officials took place in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, regarding the war in Ukraine. However, the absence of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy from the discussions has raised concerns in Europe and may complicate efforts toward a resolution. Meanwhile, the Group of Seven (G7) is considering tightening the oil price cap on Russian exports in response to ongoing tensions.
Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Ltd., pointed out that “the probability of a further postponement of OPEC+ output restoration may be a reason for price support.” However, he emphasized that broader market trends would depend on non-OPEC production increases and eventual pressures on OPEC+ to phase in output restoration.
In addition to OPEC+ uncertainties, oil flows from Kazakhstan to the Black Sea may drop by as much as 30% due to repairs on a key Russian pumping station that has been targeted by Ukrainian drones. This disruption adds further strain to the already fragile market dynamics.
Brent crude has traded within a narrow range of less than $4 a barrel this month, with implied volatility declining to its lowest level since July. This comes after a volatile start to the year, when oil prices surged due to cold weather and tightening sanctions, before facing downward pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff threats.
Trump recently announced the possibility of imposing a 25% tariff on imports of automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals, with an official decision expected by April 2. This follows his previous announcement of a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, scheduled to take effect in March.
In related developments, Trump also noted that Chevron Corp.’s ability to continue exporting crude oil from Venezuela is under review, signaling ongoing tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela that could further impact global energy markets.
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