In the three weeks since the last update on harvest receivals, the grain market has seen some notable developments, though overall activity has remained relatively steady. In the week leading up to Christmas, CBH in Western Australia (WA) received nearly as much grain as the entire harvest in Queensland.
On the East Coast, competition for bulk handler storage is intensifying, and analysts typically track GrainCorp’s receivals more for insights into harvest pace than total production. While WA has experienced a bumper crop, the forecasted challenges in Victoria and South Australia (SA) have materialized, with both regions struggling due to difficult seasonal conditions.
Regarding grain prices, the trends observed during the Christmas and New Year period have largely held steady. Wheat and barley prices have remained confined within a narrow range, while canola prices have experienced more volatility. Despite a World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report that propelled corn prices to a 12-month high, local wheat and barley prices have remained steady within the $300–350 per tonne range at port, depending on the grade.
The WASDE’s downward revision of soybean estimates contributed to the rise in canola prices, which saw a notable $15 increase on Monday, reaching $822 per tonne. Just before Christmas, canola prices had fallen from near $800 to around $750. This volatility in canola contrasts sharply with the relative stability in cereal prices, but the future direction of the canola market remains uncertain.
Additionally, the Australian dollar’s decline has caught the attention of market observers, as a weaker currency typically strengthens local grain prices by making Australian grain more competitive on the global market. However, this shift has not yet caused significant movement, with ASX wheat losing ground relative to Chicago Soft Red Wheat.
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