The Philippines is projected to significantly increase its wheat imports for the 2024-2025 period, driven by growing demand for bread, cakes, noodles, and a rising population.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA-FAS), wheat imports are expected to hit 7.2 million metric tons (MMT) between July 2024 and June 2025. This marks a 4.1 percent increase from the 6.9 million MMT estimated for the 2023-2024 marketing year.
The increase in imports is attributed to a steady rise in domestic demand, particularly for milling wheat, which is used in human food products. The USDA-FAS report forecasts a 4.3 percent rise in milling wheat demand, which is expected to reach 3.65 million MMT in the 2024-2025 period. Meanwhile, feed wheat imports, used in animal feed, are anticipated to remain stable at 3.45 million MMT.
The Philippines, which does not produce wheat domestically, relies entirely on imports to meet its supply needs. According to industry sources, the consumption of milling wheat remains strong, fueled by population growth and rising income levels. The USDA-FAS noted that as incomes rise, Filipino consumers are diversifying their diets, incorporating more wheat-based products—such as bread, cakes, noodles, and pasta—into their meals, both at home and at restaurants.
However, despite the uptick in milling wheat demand, feed wheat consumption is expected to remain unchanged. The USDA-FAS explains that local feed manufacturers are favoring corn over feed wheat due to a decline in global corn prices. Corn remains the preferred choice for animal feed due to its nutritional value and physical attributes, such as its yellow color, which is desirable for certain feed formulations. Feed wheat is typically used as a substitute when there are supply shortages or when prices are more favorable.
The report also highlights a drop in milling wheat prices, which have fallen to an average of $274 per metric ton (MT) in July-August 2024, down from $311 per MT during the same period last year. In contrast, imported corn prices have generally been on the decline since May, with the exception of a brief increase in July. This price fluctuation has further reduced the demand for feed wheat in the Philippines.
The USDA-FAS concludes that the continued growth of the wheat-based food sector, along with more favorable pricing for milling wheat, will likely maintain the upward trend in imports through 2025.
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