Russian farmers are scaling back wheat production after enduring heavy losses this year, turning to more profitable alternatives such as peas, lentils, and sunflowers. This shift is poised to impact global wheat prices, with significant consequences for major wheat-importing countries like Egypt. As the world’s leading wheat exporter, Russia’s crop decisions could further strain food security in countries dependent on its grain.
The decision to cut back on wheat follows a disastrous harvest. Frosts and droughts have slashed Russia’s wheat output to an estimated 83 million tons this year, down from 92.8 million tons in 2023 and a record 104.2 million tons in 2022. With next year’s outlook equally uncertain, many farmers are reassessing their plans.
Despite recent strong export levels, Russia’s wheat shipments are expected to slow. Bad weather, coupled with domestic measures like export restrictions to control local prices, has dampened prospects. In January 2025, the government will impose a drastic cut to export quotas, further constraining supply.
Maxim Levshunov, a farmer in Siberia’s Omsk region, described the damage to his crop caused by heavy rainfall during harvest. Much of his wheat, now only suitable for animal feed, will fetch far less than anticipated. “We’ll probably start moving away from wheat, cutting back as much as possible,” he said. Levshunov, like many of his peers, is exploring more profitable crops.
Winter wheat is expected to be hit hardest, with areas sown shrinking by 10% this year—the lowest in five years. Arkady Zlochevsky, head of the Russian Grain Union, confirmed that wheat sales are no longer covering costs, forecasting a decline in Russia’s share of the global wheat trade.
As the harvest season concludes, many farmers are left weighing their losses. Some are already cutting back on wheat sowing for the coming year, while others are holding off, waiting to see how global wheat prices develop in the coming weeks.
Dmitry Garnov, CEO of Rostagro Group, reported a 30% reduction in winter wheat planting in regions around the Volga River, as the company shifts focus to more lucrative crops like soybeans and sunflowers. Rising production costs—spurred by equipment, fuel, and export duties—have further squeezed margins. Sergei Lisovsky, a member of the Russian parliament, highlighted that grain production costs have risen by at least 28% over the past two years, yet wheat prices have remained stagnant.
In Russia’s fertile Krasnodar region, some large farms are considering changes to their crop rotation strategy as droughts intensify. “It is gradually getting warmer in the south, and we need to think about changing the structure of the sowing areas for the future,” said Yevgeny Gromyko, an executive from Tkachev Agrocomplex.
While wheat profitability is shrinking, niche crops like peas and lentils offer potential. Russia has already surpassed Canada to become the top pea exporter to China, and Indian regulators have recently cleared Russian lentils for import, further boosting the market for these crops. If the trend continues, these crops could become export success stories, particularly to Russia’s BRICS allies.
For many Russian farmers, however, the decision is less about global rankings and more about financial survival. Levshunov warned that farms specializing in wheat are facing serious financial difficulties and may even face bankruptcy. “Many farms that specialized exclusively in wheat crops have operated at a loss this year and will face very serious financial difficulties,” he said.
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