On July 17, the domestic futures market saw mixed movements, with the main contracts of various commodities both rising and falling throughout the day. Specifically, coke futures exhibited notable volatility. The primary coke contract began trading at 2288.0 yuan per ton and experienced fluctuations within a narrow range. As of the latest update, the contract peaked at 2296.0 yuan and dipped to a low of 2230.0 yuan, marking a decline of approximately 2.02%.
The current trend in the coke market reflects a downward fluctuation, with overall market performance appearing subdued. Industry experts have provided varying forecasts regarding the future trajectory of the coke market:
Industrial Futures reported that the coke market is experiencing persistent supply and demand weakness. Production increases from coke enterprises remain limited, and rigid demand support is waning. Despite smooth shipments from coking plants and low inventory levels that enhance price elasticity, the spot market retains some bullish sentiment. However, with expectations for a convergence in price basis and potential policy changes this week, the upper price range may face constraints, warranting close attention to policy developments and demand transmission efficiency.
Dayue Futures noted that coke enterprises in production areas are currently operating with high enthusiasm, resulting in increased coke supply. However, finished product sales remain weak. Additionally, some steel mills are planning production cuts due to maintenance, with molten iron output nearing peak levels. Coke purchases are largely driven by essential demand, and fluctuations in coking coal auction markets are affecting cost support for coke. In the short term, coke prices are expected to stabilize, with operations anticipated to range between 2270 and 2330 yuan per ton.
Ningzheng Futures highlighted that both supply and demand for coke are currently robust, with ongoing downstream pressure to expedite deliveries. Upstream shipments are proceeding smoothly, and both upstream and downstream inventories are low. Nonetheless, limited demand for finished products during the off-season and constrained molten iron output are affecting market dynamics. Downstream replenishment remains cautious, leading to weaker market expectations while strong real-world support offers a floor for prices. Given the ongoing cost disturbances, short-term market fluctuations are anticipated, with recommendations for range-bound trading strategies.
As the coke market navigates these fluctuating conditions, stakeholders are advised to monitor market developments closely and adjust strategies accordingly.
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