The shrimp industry in India is bracing for major disruptions as President Donald Trump’s tariff plans loom, potentially jeopardizing the country’s $7-billion seafood export market. According to Indian exporters, the introduction of a 26% tariff on shrimp exports to the United States could endanger 2,000 containers filled with frozen shrimp.
However, neighboring Ecuador, located much closer to the U.S., could gain an advantage from the situation. Ecuador’s shrimp industry, which is the country’s second-largest export after oil, is set to benefit from a lower tariff rate of 10%, which could strengthen its position in the U.S. market.
Indian shrimp exporters face an uncertain future as the July tariff plan threatens to undermine their position in the world’s largest seafood market. The 26% tariff is part of Trump’s broader trade strategy, and it comes at a time when U.S. supermarket chains like Walmart and Kroger are renegotiating prices due to the new tariff structure. As a result, farmers and exporters in India are already experiencing a sharp decline in demand.
“We are suffering huge losses,” said S.V.L. Pathi Raju, a shrimp farmer from Andhra Pradesh, standing near his aquaculture pond. “We don’t know who can resolve our price issues,” he added, highlighting the challenges faced by farmers like him in the coastal state. With demand dropping, many farmers are cutting their offer prices by up to 10% in a bid to stay competitive.
Uppalapati Nagaraju, another shrimp farmer, expressed regret over entering the industry just 15 days before the tariff announcement. “Had I known, I would not have started my cultivation,” he said, pointing to the high costs of shrimp feed and land rental as added burdens in the face of the tariffs. While Trump has postponed the 26% tariff until July, the current 10% levy is already putting a strain on exporters, who are grappling with increased uncertainty.
India’s seafood exports, valued at $7.3 billion in 2024, saw a record 1.8 million metric tons of product shipped globally. Of that, shrimp accounted for the bulk of the shipments, with Andhra Pradesh alone contributing 92% of India’s $2.5 billion worth of shrimp exports to the United States. Despite the looming tariff threat, industry representatives have joined state government panels to explore alternative markets such as China and the European Union.
Yet, Ecuador is seen as a rising competitor. The country shipped $1.55 billion worth of shrimp in 2024, and with the 10% tariff, Ecuador could expand its reach into the U.S. market, potentially pressuring Indian exporters to look for alternative markets where Ecuador is already present. “India will be obliged to look for other markets where Ecuador is selling, like China and the European Union,” said Jose Antonio Camposano, president of Ecuador’s National Chamber of Aquaculture.
Despite Ecuador’s optimism, Indian exporters fear that the South American nation’s closer proximity to the U.S. will give it a significant edge in the competitive market. India’s seafood exporters are now working with the government to secure exemptions or reductions in the tariffs through trade negotiations with the U.S. “It’s game over for us if the 26% tariff takes effect in July,” said one anonymous exporter, warning of a dire future if the tariffs lead to renegotiation of already agreed shipping prices.
In Andhra Pradesh, shrimp production remains a critical part of the local economy. Shrimp is sorted and frozen before being shipped across the globe, with shipments arriving at U.S. ports in New York, Houston, and Miami after a 40-day journey. But the tariffs have already put exporters in a precarious position, with many now worried about containers of shrimp that may be sitting unsold in U.S. warehouses.
“We are operating on a 3% to 4% margin,” said G. Pawan Kumar, president of the Seafood Exporters Association of India, adding that even the 10% tariff is a significant blow to the industry. “We are pushing for exemptions in trade talks, but the situation is critical.”
Walmart, one of the largest U.S. retailers and a major buyer of Indian shrimp, has reassured its suppliers that their long-standing relationships will continue despite the tariff challenges. “We expect that to continue, going forward,” said Latriece Watkins, Walmart’s chief merchandising officer, highlighting the importance of sustaining these business connections amid global trade turbulence.
As the U.S. and India navigate the turbulent waters of trade tariffs, the future of India’s shrimp industry and the broader seafood export market hangs in the balance, with both uncertainty and opportunity looming large.
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