China’s exports saw a remarkable 12.4% jump in March compared to the same month last year, as companies scrambled to ship goods before U.S. tariff hikes scheduled to take effect. The surge in exports, which totaled $313.9 billion, significantly outpaced imports that fell by 4.3%, reaching $211.3 billion, leaving China with a trade surplus of $102.6 billion, according to data released by the country’s customs administration on Monday.
This impressive export growth comes as China continues to grapple with the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and a sluggish domestic recovery, particularly in its real estate sector. Despite these challenges, China’s exports rose by 5.4% in 2024, contributing to a record trade surplus of $992.2 billion.
The sharp rise in exports is partly attributed to efforts by Chinese companies to avoid the impact of rising U.S. tariffs. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration initially imposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods, later raising the rate to 20%. Currently, China faces tariffs of up to 145% on most of its exports to the U.S., a policy that has already had a significant impact on trade flows between the two nations.
In March, China’s trade surplus with the United States reached $27.6 billion, driven by a 4.5% increase in exports. For the first quarter of 2025, China recorded a trade surplus of $76.6 billion with the U.S., despite only a modest 2.3% rise in exports during January and February.
Economists suggest that U.S. importers anticipated tariff hikes in April, leading them to frontload imports ahead of the changes. However, ING Economics warns that this trend may not continue as importers deplete their inventories, potentially causing a sharp decline in direct U.S.-China trade in the coming months.
China’s overall exports for the first quarter of 2025 rose by 5.8%, while imports fell by 7%, resulting in a trade surplus of $273 billion. The country’s exports to Southeast Asia, Africa, and India showed particularly strong growth, with shipments to these regions rising nearly 17%, over 11%, and almost 14%, respectively.
Despite the challenges posed by U.S. tariffs, Chinese officials remain optimistic. Lyu Daliang, a spokesperson for the customs administration, emphasized that while China faces a “complex and severe external situation,” the country’s diversified export market and large domestic market offer significant opportunities. He also pointed out that China has maintained its position as the world’s second-largest importer for 16 consecutive years, with its share of global imports increasing from around 8% to 10.5%.
Meanwhile, Chinese President Xi Jinping is currently on a regional tour of Vietnam, Malaysia, and Cambodia, where he aims to strengthen trade ties with Asian nations. Xi’s visit gains added significance amid the ongoing trade conflict with the U.S. In March, China’s exports to Vietnam saw a nearly 17% increase, while imports from the country fell by 2.7%.
The trade war’s effects are becoming evident in the structure of China’s exports, with higher tariffs leading to a decline in the export of lower-value items like shoes and clothing, while exports of more advanced products such as computer chips, household appliances, and vehicles have surged. Additionally, exports of rare earth materials, vital for high-tech industries like electric vehicles, dropped nearly 11% in the first quarter as China tightened its export controls on these strategic resources.
As China navigates the evolving global trade landscape, the coming months will reveal whether these trends continue, particularly as U.S. tariffs remain a critical factor in shaping international trade dynamics.
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