Brazilian coffee exporters are seizing an opportunity to increase shipments of robusta beans to the United States, as U.S. President Donald Trump’s global tariffs create a challenging environment for international rivals. While Brazil faces a 10% tariff on coffee imports, countries like Vietnam and Indonesia—the world’s leading robusta producers—are hit with significantly higher tariffs of 46% and 32%, respectively.
The Brazilian Coffee Exporters Council (Cecafe) believes these tariffs could offer a competitive edge for Brazil, particularly if the U.S. coffee industry fails to secure an exemption for the grain, or if Vietnam is unable to reverse its own tariff in separate negotiations. Cecafe’s director general, Marcos Matos, emphasized that while opportunities exist, the situation remains one of concern rather than clear gains.
“Although there are opportunities, the scenario is more about caution than advantage,” Matos remarked in a recent interview.
In 2024, the U.S. remained Brazil’s largest coffee buyer, importing 8.13 million 60-kilogram bags, or 16% of Brazil’s total coffee exports. Vietnam and Indonesia together accounted for around 2 million bags of coffee purchased by the U.S., with the majority being robusta beans.
While Brazil, the world’s largest coffee producer, traditionally grows more Arabica beans—known for their milder taste—experts predict a drop in Arabica output for the 2025 harvest, paired with a significant rise in robusta production.
Despite the challenges posed by tariffs, Matos is confident that coffee will continue to fare better than other commodities during turbulent economic times, citing the resilience of the coffee industry during the COVID-19 pandemic. He noted that Brazil, facing the lowest possible tariff, is positioned to maintain its U.S. market share.
“Coffee tends to remain stable even during economic crises… although it does have its limits and could see a decline,” he stated.
The most favorable scenario for Brazil, Matos explained, would be if coffee is included in a tariff exemption list. He pointed to studies indicating that every dollar spent on coffee imports generates $43 for the U.S. economy, underscoring the economic benefits of maintaining strong coffee trade ties.
“We are actively working toward securing an exemption, emphasizing the economic value that coffee brings to the U.S.,” Matos concluded.
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