China and Brazil are poised to solidify their standing as the world’s second and third largest corn producers, respectively, according to recent reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA).
China’s Production on the Rise
China is expected to reach 300 million tonnes of corn production in the 2025/26 season, driven by anticipated improvements in yield. The USDA’s Beijing desk has projected the country’s yield to increase to 6.71 tonnes per hectare, up from 6.59 mt/ha in 2024/25, as the Chinese government continues to push initiatives aimed at boosting output. Despite the increase, the area harvested is expected to remain nearly unchanged at 44.74 million hectares.
While the overall production forecast is strong, the USDA raised its estimate for China’s corn imports by one million tonnes, bringing the total forecast to eight million tonnes. This adjustment comes despite ongoing trade tensions and retaliatory tariffs on U.S. imports. In addition, China’s total corn consumption is forecast to rise by three million tonnes to 321 million, while ending stocks are expected to fall to 182.22 million tonnes in 2025/26, down from 195.52 million the previous year.
Brazil’s Corn Production Set to Surpass 130 Million Tonnes
Meanwhile, Brazil is also on track for a significant increase in corn output. The USDA’s Brasilia desk forecasts that Brazil’s production will climb to 130 million tonnes in 2025/26, marking a four million tonne increase from the previous year. This boost is attributed to favorable growing conditions for Brazil’s second corn crop, alongside strong corn prices.
The USDA also adjusted its estimate for Brazil’s corn yield, projecting it will rise slightly to 5.78 tonnes per hectare, up from 5.73 mt/ha in 2024/25. Additionally, the harvested area is set to expand by 500,000 hectares to 22.5 million hectares.
Brazil’s corn exports are expected to hold steady at 44 million tonnes, supported by a free trade deal with the European Union that will prevent a decline in trade. However, domestic consumption is expected to rise, leading to a two-million-tonne increase to 89.5 million tonnes. This growth in consumption, combined with a reduction in ending stocks to 2.56 million tonnes (down from 4.46 million tonnes), marks a shift in Brazil’s corn market dynamics for 2025/26.
With both nations strengthening their production capabilities, China and Brazil are set to remain pivotal players in the global corn market.
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