India is on track to achieve its third consecutive record wheat harvest in the 2025-26 marketing year, with an expected output of 115 million tonnes (MT). This forecast comes as a result of favorable weather conditions and record planting in key wheat-growing regions, according to a report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA).
The USDA’s projection follows an estimate from India’s agriculture ministry, which last month predicted a wheat output of 115.3 MT for the 2024-25 crop year, marking a 2% increase from the previous year. If realized, this would further solidify India’s position as a global agricultural powerhouse.
Despite this promising outlook for domestic wheat supplies, the USDA reports that India is unlikely to lift its export ban, imposed in May 2022 due to concerns over rising domestic prices. Exports are expected to remain restricted to neighboring countries due to geopolitical factors. Additionally, despite relatively weak global wheat prices, high import duties—currently set at 40%—are expected to limit wheat and wheat product imports in the upcoming season.
Wheat cultivation in India has expanded this season to 32.6 million hectares (Mha), surpassing the previous year’s area of 31.56 Mha. The expansion in planted area, combined with favorable weather, has set the stage for an exceptional harvest. Ratan Tiwari, director of the Indian Institute of Wheat and Barley Research, has expressed confidence that the final output will exceed the USDA’s 115 MT projection, considering the current state of the crop.
In the current marketing year, wheat sowing has outpaced last year’s figures, further indicating a healthy crop. The trade anticipates a harvest of approximately 110 MT, up from 106 MT in the 2023-24 season.
Wheat Procurement Underway with Strong Early Arrivals
The procurement of wheat for the 2025-26 marketing year is already off to a strong start. Agencies, including the Food Corporation of India (FCI) and various state government bodies, have purchased over 2 million tonnes (MT) of wheat so far. This represents a sharp increase from the 0.45 MT purchased during the same period last year.
The early surge in procurement can be attributed to robust wheat arrivals in key producing states such as Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Gujarat. Wheat arrivals at markets in Haryana, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Gujarat have reached 3.8 MT, more than double the 1.53 MT recorded during the same time last year.
Procurement operations in Punjab and Haryana—two of India’s largest wheat-producing states—have just begun and are expected to peak in the coming weeks. The government aims to purchase 31 MT of wheat under the Minimum Support Price (MSP) scheme this season, with significant contributions from Punjab (12.4 MT), Haryana (7.5 MT), Madhya Pradesh (6 MT), Uttar Pradesh (3 MT), Rajasthan (2 MT), and Gujarat (0.1 MT).
For the 2024-25 marketing year, procurement agencies had purchased 26.6 MT of wheat, with approximately 18.4 MT allocated for the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana, the government’s free ration scheme. The continued strong performance of India’s wheat sector signals positive prospects for both domestic supply and the government’s food security programs.
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