Oil prices experienced fluctuations as investors weighed former U.S. President Donald Trump’s conflicting statements on potential sanctions against Russian crude. Trump initially expressed strong dissatisfaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin over the Ukraine conflict but later appeared to soften his stance, introducing uncertainty in the energy market.
Speaking aboard Air Force One, Trump suggested he did not believe Putin would renege on previous agreements, tempering his earlier remarks in which he said he was “very angry” with the Russian leader and would consider “secondary tariffs” if a ceasefire was not reached.
Following these comments, Brent crude’s June contract remained relatively stable below $73 per barrel after a modest gain at market open, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $69 per barrel. The prospect of new U.S. tariffs on other nations this week, which could trigger retaliatory measures, added to market volatility.
As one of the world’s top three oil producers, Russia plays a crucial role in global energy supply. Any significant punitive action could have widespread implications, particularly for major buyers India and China, which have increased their Russian crude imports since the start of Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Analysts remain cautious about whether Trump’s threats will translate into concrete policy. “Whether these tariffs are just rhetoric or will actually be implemented remains uncertain,” said Gao Jian, an analyst at Qisheng Futures Co. “The scale of Russia’s oil trade means any action requires careful consideration.”
Despite existing U.S. sanctions, Russia’s crude exports reached a five-month high in March, and penalties targeting its tanker fleet have had limited effect. Trump told in a phone interview that he would impose penalties “if a deal on Ukraine is not reached and if I think it was Russia’s fault.”
In addition to potential action against Russia, Trump signaled he may impose secondary sanctions on Iran and raised the prospect of military action, stating he could authorize bombings until Tehran agrees to abandon its nuclear ambitions.
Brent crude is on track for a modest monthly increase, driven by concerns over U.S. trade policies and sanctions that could disrupt oil flows. However, many major traders remain bearish for the remainder of the year due to rising supply levels. Meanwhile, the OPEC+ alliance is set to gradually reinstate idled production starting next month, adding another layer of complexity to the market outlook.
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