Vietnam’s coffee production for the 2024-25 season is expected to fall short of last year’s output due to adverse weather conditions, exacerbating a global supply shortage that has sent prices soaring.
Nguyen Nam Hai, chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association (Vicofa), reported that output is forecast at 26.5 million bags, down from 27 million bags in 2023-24. This figure is also lower than the association’s December estimate. As the world’s largest producer of robusta coffee, Vietnam’s production decline is contributing to tightening global supplies.
The global coffee market has been further strained by harvest setbacks in other major producers, such as Brazil, leading to a significant spike in robusta futures in London, which have surged nearly 70% over the past year.
Hai attributed the reduced output to prolonged drought conditions in key coffee-growing regions of Vietnam. Speaking at the Buon Ma Thuot Coffee Festival in Dak Lak province, Hai noted that the severe weather events worldwide have worsened the coffee shortage.
“We are facing a shortage of coffee this year because of numerous extreme weather events in major growing regions globally,” said Vanúsia Nogueira, executive director of the International Coffee Organization, in an interview. “We are very short on stocks.”
As the 2024-25 harvest nears completion, coffee beans are nearing maturation for the upcoming season. However, Hai noted that coffee tree flowering has been promising, aided by sufficient rainfall, which could improve supply prospects for the future.
Robusta coffee, which is widely used in instant coffee and espresso blends, remains a key component of the global market as the shortage continues to impact pricing.
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