The United States is facing the possibility of a trade conflict with Mexico, its largest corn buyer, within the coming week, raising concerns over the future of bilateral corn exports. Despite this looming threat, recent data does not substantiate fears of significant stockpiling by Mexican buyers.
As of mid-February, Mexico has committed to purchasing a record 17.2 million tonnes (approximately 678 million bushels) of U.S. corn for the 2024 and 2025 seasons. This figure represents 70% of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) forecast for Mexican corn imports during this period. However, this is actually a five-year low when considering mid-February sales compared to annual import predictions.
The proportion of Mexico’s corn purchases from the U.S. is in line with recent trends, as shares have often been higher due to the USDA’s historical tendency to underestimate Mexican corn needs. Over the past decade, actual Mexican corn imports have exceeded USDA forecasts, with only two exceptions.
Mexico remains heavily dependent on imported corn to meet its consumption needs. The country’s corn crop has grown by about 15% over the last decade, but consumption has surged by 50%. Consequently, the recent increase in imports is largely attributed to two consecutive crop failures, benefiting U.S. producers.
For the 2023-2024 and 2024-2025 seasons, imports are expected to comprise 51% of Mexico’s corn usage, significantly higher than the previous three-year average of 40%. The U.S. supplies at least 90% of Mexico’s annual corn imports, a trend that has held despite previous tariff threats from the Trump administration.
Mexico’s pace of corn purchases from the U.S. remains typical, with the country accounting for 36% of all U.S. corn exports for 2024 and 2025. This figure aligns with the five-year average, and is well below the record share of 45% seen in the previous year. This suggests that U.S. exporters are not overly reliant on Mexico, as U.S. corn exports as a whole are performing well, potentially setting new records.
In fact, U.S. corn exports have seen impressive growth, with export inspections up 32% compared to the previous year. The USDA has projected a 7% increase in total U.S. corn exports for 2024 and 2025, although this projection does not directly align with the inspection figures due to seasonal variations.
As of now, the U.S. has already shipped about 55% of Mexico’s 2024-2025 corn bookings, which is slightly above the average for this time of year. Looking ahead, Mexico’s demand for U.S. corn could be tempered if its domestic crop performs well. However, if trade relations remain stable, Mexico’s growing demand may continue to drive U.S. exports regardless of the local harvest outcomes.
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