In July, China anticipates a continued reduction in aged corn stocks alongside a rising monthly consumption of corn and its substitutes for breeding and feed production. However, a persistent decline in comprehensive breeding volumes of live pigs is expected to temper the growth in corn demand. Despite this, domestic supplies of corn and its substitutes are deemed sufficient for the month, albeit amidst an ongoing trend of tightening supply.
The market exhibits a dichotomy with bullish support from both supply and demand dynamics. On one hand, recent rainfall in northern production zones is poised to alleviate growing conditions, potentially dampening spot prices. Meanwhile, summer’s high temperatures and humidity pose challenges for corn storage, prompting heightened trader activity in selling grain. Additionally, reduced demand in the off-season for deep processing further pressures spot prices downward.
Considering these multifaceted factors, analysts predict a generally stable corn price trajectory in early July, leaning towards a slightly stronger and volatile trend. However, vulnerabilities may surface in the latter half of mid-July through early August. Looking further ahead, there is an increasing likelihood of sustained weakness in corn prices from late August through October, contingent upon subsequent weather conditions impacting production areas.
Market observers emphasize vigilance towards evolving weather patterns and their potential ramifications on crop growth, underscoring the fluidity of the market landscape.
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