Pork prices have seen a significant increase today, primarily due to ongoing heavy rainfall that has hindered the marketing of local pigs. This situation, combined with the long-term destocking of pig production capacity from last year, has led to a reduction in the theoretical supply of standard pigs. Additionally, lower feed costs have resulted in farmers being reluctant to sell their livestock.
The market is currently facing secondary fattening practices, contributing to a pronounced shortage of pigs. Consequently, slaughter companies are compelled to raise their purchase prices to secure livestock. A combination of these factors has led to sustained upward pressure on pork prices.
Despite these positive influences on price, there are still demand constraints that limit overall price increases. Analysts predict that the prices of large pigs marketed in late July will continue to fluctuate significantly, with a high likelihood of ongoing price increases from August through December.
However, should pig prices rise too rapidly in July and August, it could undermine the anticipated price increases in September and January, potentially leading to a decline rather than further growth. It’s important to note that while there is a tight supply of slaughter pigs, this does not necessarily equate to a limited supply of pork itself. Overestimating the scarcity of pigs poses significant risks, particularly given the high level of uniformity in future market expectations among producers.
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