Despite a weaker US dollar, the price of gold (XAU/USD) traded in negative territory on Tuesday. The Federal Reserve’s delay in signaling an interest rate cut following a stronger-than-expected US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) last week has restrained upward movement in gold prices. However, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Ukraine are prompting safe-haven flows, potentially bolstering the precious metal in the near term.
Investors are closely monitoring speeches from Fed officials Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman scheduled for Tuesday. Key US economic data expected later in the week, including the final Q1 GDP reading and May’s PCE Price Index, will provide further direction. Signs of easing inflation could heighten expectations of Fed rate cuts later this year, potentially weakening the dollar and benefiting USD-denominated gold.
San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly emphasized on Monday that any rate cuts should align with a confident outlook on inflation nearing 2%. Daly also noted the robust labor market, though warned of potential challenges if inflation persists.
Technical analysis indicates that gold faces downward pressure in the short term despite holding above the key 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The precious metal has maintained a descending trend channel since mid-May, with the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) signaling a neutral stance.
In trading terms, the upper boundary of the descending trend channel at $2,350 remains a critical resistance level for XAU/USD. A breakout above this level could lead to further gains towards $2,387, with $2,450 marking a subsequent target. Conversely, initial support lies near $2,316, followed by $2,285 and the crucial zone of $2,255-$2,260, where the 100-day EMA and the lower trend channel converge.
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