Oil prices held steady after a sharp drop, hovering above four-year lows, as global markets assessed the latest developments in US trade policy and a fresh round of diplomatic talks between the United States and Iran.
Brent crude slipped below $65 a barrel after two consecutive weeks of losses, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered near $62. Although President Donald Trump temporarily paused tariffs on certain electronics, he hinted that new duties would be announced soon—maintaining uncertainty in global markets.
Meanwhile, a potential diplomatic thaw with Iran could boost global oil supply. Talks held over the weekend in Oman marked the highest-level discussions between Washington and Tehran since 2022. Both parties reportedly made progress and agreed to continue negotiations, signaling a renewed push to resolve longstanding tensions over Iran’s nuclear program.
Oil markets have been under significant pressure throughout April, largely driven by fears that the US-China trade war could trigger a global recession and weaken energy demand. Adding to the bearish outlook, OPEC+ unexpectedly moved to restore previously halted production faster than anticipated, amplifying concerns of a supply glut.
Volatile price swings have sparked renewed anxiety that global oil supply could outpace demand in 2025. Investors are now closely watching key market assessments. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is set to release its monthly market report later Monday, followed by the International Energy Agency (IEA) on Tuesday, which will include its first projections for 2026.
In a note to clients, analysts at Goldman Sachs, including Daan Struyven, forecast a surplus of around 800,000 barrels per day this year. They expect Brent crude to average $63 per barrel for the remainder of 2025, citing potential inventory builds as a core reason for continued market softness.
Oil’s recent declines come amid broader market turbulence sparked by the evolving trade conflict. Global commodities and equities have sold off sharply, with even traditional safe-haven assets like the US dollar and Treasury bonds registering unexpected losses.
“I see limited upside for crude,” said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. While oil futures showed a modest recovery in the final trading session last week, Hari emphasized that the market’s next move hinges on the tone of upcoming US trade announcements. “Will crude sustain Friday’s upward momentum or stall again? That’s the question—it depends entirely on what tone Trump sets on the tariffs front,” she added.
As geopolitical and economic uncertainties persist, oil markets remain on edge, awaiting clearer signals from both policymakers and energy agencies.
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