China’s exports are expected to show a significant uptick in March as factories ramped up shipments in anticipation of new tariffs from U.S. President Donald Trump. However, the ongoing trade war between the world’s two largest economies casts a shadow over China’s economic outlook, with experts forecasting continued challenges ahead.
According to a survey of 19 economists, China’s outbound shipments are likely to increase by 4.4% year-on-year in March, a notable acceleration from the 2.3% growth seen in the January-February period. The uptick comes as Chinese manufacturers rushed to fulfill orders before the implementation of U.S. tariffs, which have created uncertainty in global trade.
Despite the growth in exports, imports are expected to remain sluggish. Economists predict a 2.0% decline in imports for March, following an unexpected drop of 8.4% at the start of the year. This weak import data reflects ongoing challenges within the Chinese economy.
China’s economy has had a tumultuous start to 2025, with mixed signals emerging from different sectors. Manufacturing activity saw its fastest growth in a year in March, and retail sales showed signs of improvement. However, rising unemployment and persistent deflationary pressures are prompting calls for more government stimulus measures.
The intensifying trade war with the United States is of particular concern for Chinese policymakers. President Trump has targeted China with additional tariffs of up to 145%, despite previously suspending tariffs on several other countries he accuses of “ripping off” the U.S. China has retaliated with its own set of tariffs, including 84% duties on American goods, following Trump’s latest round of tariff hikes on April 2.
Trade experts warn that these escalating tensions could have a devastating impact on trade between the two countries. The World Trade Organization recently estimated that the trade dispute could reduce the flow of goods between China and the U.S. by as much as 80%.
In response to the growing uncertainty, major financial institutions have downgraded their growth forecasts for China. Goldman Sachs recently lowered its 2025 GDP growth forecast for China to 4% from 4.5%, citing the impact of tariffs. Citi made a similar adjustment, cutting its forecast from 4.7% to 4.2%.
China’s trade data for March is expected to show a trade surplus of $77.0 billion, a significant decrease from the $104.8 billion surplus recorded in December. However, the surplus is likely to remain in line with the level from the same period last year. The trade surplus remains a point of contention in U.S.-China relations, with President Trump focused on reducing the trade gap between the two countries.
Global trade patterns are also being influenced by Trump’s tariffs, with other nations scrambling to adjust their export strategies. German exports rose more than expected in February, with shipments to the U.S. climbing 8.5% as businesses rushed to beat the anticipated U.S. tariffs. South Korea also saw an increase in exports during the same period.
Despite the surge in exports, China’s imports of South Korean goods fell by 4.1% in March, according to Korean trade data. This decline is seen as an early indication of weaker demand for imports, further complicating China’s economic recovery efforts.
With the release of March’s trade data expected on Monday, all eyes will be on the figures as policymakers in Beijing face mounting challenges on both the domestic and international fronts. The ongoing trade war, combined with domestic economic pressures, is likely to have long-lasting effects on China’s economic trajectory.
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